Chaos Rising Pull Rates: What Are Your Real Odds?

Chaos Rising Pull Rates: What Are Your Real Odds?

Chaos Rising is out now and packs are being opened across the UK. The question on every collector's mind before they crack their first pack is the same one it always is: what are my actual chances of pulling something good? The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates, so the most reliable data comes from community aggregations of documented pack openings. This guide pulls together confirmed data from prerelease Ninja Spinner openings and early English community data to give you the most accurate picture currently available.

As always with pull rates, these figures represent averages across large numbers of packs. Individual sessions will vary significantly in both directions. Opening nine packs and pulling two SIRs is not proof the odds are better than stated. Opening nine packs and pulling none is not proof they are worse. The numbers only become meaningful across hundreds of packs.

The Chaos Rising Set Structure: Why It Matters for Pull Rates

Before getting into the numbers it is worth understanding what makes Chaos Rising structurally different from Ascended Heroes, the previous special expansion most collectors have been opening.

Chaos Rising is a standard main set containing 122 cards in total, with secret rares numbered above the base set total of 83. It has six Special Illustration Rares, one Mega Hyper Rare, and five Mega Attack Rares. Compare that to Ascended Heroes with 22 SIRs and two Mega Hyper Rares. The smaller pool of premium cards in Chaos Rising means that when you pull an SIR, your chances of landing the specific one you want are considerably better than they were with Ascended Heroes.

The set also introduces Mega Gallade ex as an English exclusive card not found in the Japanese Ninja Spinner base set, alongside Krookodile ex and the Trainer card Adversity Policy. These additions give the English set a slightly different card distribution to the Japanese version, though the pull rate structure remains broadly consistent.

Chaos Rising Pull Rates: The Confirmed Numbers

Based on community data from 168 prerelease pack openings of the Ninja Spinner Japanese set alongside early English community data, here are the confirmed pull rates for Chaos Rising.

Double Rares pull at approximately one in every 3.5 packs, making them the most reliably frequent hit in the set. You should expect two to three Double Rare Pokemon ex from a nine pack ETB as a consistent baseline.

Illustration Rares pull at approximately one in every nine packs, appearing roughly four times per booster box. They are the most consistent above common hit in the set and the rarity tier that gives the set its visual identity beyond the chase cards. Chaos Rising has eleven Illustration Rares including the Froakie, Frogadier, and connected Xerneas artwork pieces that have drawn strong community interest.

Ultra Rares and full art Trainer cards combined appear in approximately one in every twelve packs, meaning two to three per booster box on average. These include the full art ex cards and full art Supporter cards that occupy the tier below SIRs in the premium rarity hierarchy.

Mega Attack Rares pull at approximately one in every 29 packs. With five Mega Attack Rares in the set, pulling any specific one averages approximately one in 145 packs. The Mega Greninja ex Mega Attack Rare is the most sought after in this tier.

Special Illustration Rares pull at approximately one in every 55 to 72 packs based on community data. This means a nine pack ETB gives you roughly a one in seven to eight chance of containing an SIR. With six SIRs in the pool, pulling any specific SIR averages approximately one in 330 to 432 packs. Pulling the Mega Greninja ex SIR specifically sits at the upper end of that range, making it the most statistically challenging individual pull in the set below the Mega Hyper Rare.

The Mega Hyper Rare, which is the Mega Greninja ex in full gold foil treatment numbered 120/083, pulls at approximately one in 200 packs based on early data. This is significantly more accessible than the one in 540 rate seen in Ascended Heroes, making it one of the more achievable Mega Hyper Rares of the current era. It is still a long shot from a single ETB but not an impossibility in the way the Ascended Heroes MHRs were for most collectors.

What to Expect from an ETB

Nine packs gives you the following statistical picture based on confirmed pull rates.

Two to three Double Rares as a reliable baseline. One Illustration Rare is a consistent expectation, with the possibility of two. One full art Ultra Rare or Trainer card is likely but not guaranteed across nine packs. A Special Illustration Rare sits at roughly one in seven to eight chance per ETB, meaning most ETBs will not contain one but a meaningful proportion will. The Mega Hyper Rare at one in 200 packs gives each ETB approximately a one in 22 chance of containing one, making it a genuine but unlikely outcome from a single box.

The practical experience of opening a Chaos Rising ETB is one of the more satisfying in the current era. The Illustration Rare cadence of approximately one per nine packs means the set delivers beautiful full scene artwork pulls at a reasonable frequency, and the six SIR pool means that when an SIR does appear it is more likely to be a card with genuine collector appeal rather than a lower demand option from a larger pool.

How Chaos Rising Compares to Ascended Heroes

Collectors who have primarily been opening Ascended Heroes will notice meaningful differences in the Chaos Rising experience.

The overall SIR pull rate per pack is broadly similar between the two sets. The critical difference is the pool size. Ascended Heroes has 22 SIRs diluting the rarity slots. Chaos Rising has six. This means that pulling an SIR in Chaos Rising is roughly 3.7 times more likely to be the specific card you want compared to pulling a random SIR from Ascended Heroes.

The Mega Hyper Rare in Chaos Rising at approximately one in 200 packs is dramatically more accessible than the Ascended Heroes MHRs at one in 540. If you have been chasing a Mega Hyper Rare and found Ascended Heroes discouraging, Chaos Rising gives you a considerably better shot at the gold tier card of the set.

The overall hit rate of one in 3.5 packs for Double Rares or higher in Chaos Rising is slightly better than Ascended Heroes, meaning the average pack opening experience is marginally more rewarding across the mid tiers.

The Mega Greninja ex SIR: The Honest Maths

Mega Greninja ex SIR is the card everyone wants from Chaos Rising and it is worth being honest about what the maths says about pulling it.

At one in 330 to 432 packs on average for this specific card, the expected pack cost to pull a Mega Greninja ex SIR far exceeds what the card will cost as a single on the secondary market once the set has been in the market for a few weeks. If you want this specific card for your collection, buying it as a single is the rational approach.

If you want to open packs for the enjoyment of the experience, that is a completely valid reason to open Chaos Rising and the pull rates across the mid tiers make it a satisfying set to open. Just go in knowing that pulling Mega Greninja ex SIR from your own packs is a wonderful outcome to hope for rather than an expectation to plan around.

Singles vs Packs: The Usual Conclusion

The same principle that applies to every Pokemon TCG set applies here. For specific high value chase cards, buying the single is almost always more cost efficient than pack opening. For the experience of opening packs from an exciting set, the pull rates across the mid tiers make Chaos Rising a genuinely enjoyable set to open without chasing a specific card.

Many collectors do both. They open a product or two for the experience and buy the specific cards they want as singles. That approach lets you enjoy the hobby without the frustration of chasing statistically unlikely pulls through pack volume alone.

Where to Get Chaos Rising in the UK

Chaos Rising is available now at CardDeckr including single booster packs, the Booster Bundle, Three Pack Blister, and the Elite Trainer Box. All product is factory sealed, sourced through verified UK distribution channels, and guaranteed authentic. Visit carddeckr.com to check current stock, sign up for a free account to get 5% off every order and to receive stock notifications. Pokémon and all related names are trademarks of Nintendo, Creatures Inc., GAME FREAK inc., and The Pokémon Company. CardDeckr is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company International. All pull rate data is based on community aggregate openings and should be treated as estimates rather than guaranteed outcomes.